The Shape
customers.
Month 12.
You break even.
You're the operator who turns a messy dispute queue into a workflow stores come back to when the next case hits.
LTV : CAC
:1
Healthy · 1.0× threshold
Gross margin
%
Above SaaS median
Break-even
by Month 12
Monday morning
Monday, 8:30 am: send 5 plain-text emails to DTC agencies and Shopify consultants offering one free live-dispute rescue this week, and ask each for 1 client with an open case right now.
Who Waits for You
like them.
It's 6:54am.
Waiting for you.
Shopify-first DTC operations lead with active chargebacks and no dedicated risk analyst
Tuesday, 8:17am. You are Alyssa at the warehouse desk with Shopify open, Gmail in one tab, UPS tracking in another, and a bank portal timing out in the third. You run operations for a Shopify-first DTC brand, and because nobody owns chargebacks full time, every live dispute lands on you between the morning order queue and the refund inbox. Today your workaround is manual copy and paste, the occasional write-off on low-ticket cases, or handing over 20% to 30% of recovered revenue to a recovery vendor. You start shopping for help the day an $800 delivered order still gets reversed or the dispute count starts pushing the store toward merchant-account pressure.
An $800-class delivered order still loses, dispute count rises, or merchant-account pressure starts showing up.
“Tracking screenshot, order confirmation, refund policy, shipping proof, customer emails, and timeline summary. All for a $42 order that was clearly delivered.”Open
“I just lost another chargeback. This time the total was $800. I provided signature proof of delivery as well as picture proof of delivery.”Open
“Submitted login records, completion percentages, timestamps of their activity. Lost it yesterday. Apparently their bank doesn't care about usage data.”Open
Market size
Global 2025 chargeback management spend across software, platforms, and services; this is a broad proxy, not a pure evidence-desk market.
Conservative 2025 proxy for SMB retail and ecommerce chargeback software spend using 52.7% retail share, 72.8% software share, and 41.7% SMB share of the broader market.
Year-1 obtainable ARR at 12 stores x $149/mo under heavy incumbent price pressure; this is a planning ceiling, not a measured market.
Why now
CE3.0 auto-qualification expands
Since October 17, 2025, cleaner prior-order evidence matters more on Visa 10.4 fraud disputes, so messy records hurt more often.
checkout.comChargeback volume climbs
Global chargeback cases are projected to rise 24% from 2025 to 2028, so the same ops lead sees the dispute queue more often.
market.usBudget already exists for dispute relief
Chargeflow said it served 15,000 merchants after tripling revenue year over year, which says stores already pay to get this work off the desk.
prnewswire.comMost Stripe-native or platform-managed stores already have adequate dispute handling inside bundled tools. This persona stays real only when the store has multi-gateway history or missing data paths those tools still miss.
CE3.0 helps only a narrow slice of Visa 10.4 fraud disputes with two prior clean transactions and matching data. If the first sampled cases do not meet that bar, this persona does not buy for CE3.0.
Low-volume stores can write off a $42 dispute or ask for pay-per-win instead of a monthly fee. This customer shape starts only when recoverable disputed GMV keeps showing up every month.
The plan carries two price anchors at once: $149/mo in SOM and $249/mo in pricing. Until live pilots show what this buyer actually pays, the customer shape is still unresolved.
Switching cost is higher than it looks because deadlines, evidence formatting, and current vendor contracts create inertia. If Stripe or a recovery vendor already owns submission, a better editor alone may not move the queue.
The $415.8M SAM is a broad proxy for retail and ecommerce chargeback software spend. The reachable slice for a narrow evidence desk is smaller than that headline.
The Battle
Your door.
We're the review-first dispute desk that assembles editable, bank-ready packets and marks which cases are worth fighting for Shopify-first DTC ops leads with active chargebacks and no dedicated risk analyst.
Your case history stays outside any one processor, so prior orders, carrier scans, and support threads stay reusable even when the dispute moves across tools.
Data moatThe opening sits in the half-covered cases: Stripe leaves them in requires_evidence or unavailable, Chargeback.io stops before the dispute, and pay-per-win vendors feel expensive when the team already knows how to fight. You win only where proof is scattered, recoverable value is real, and the ops lead still wants the last edit.
Who else is in the arena
Battle card — what to say vs them
- 1.Chargeflow takes the whole recovery job and 25% of the win. Your evidence desk fits the store that already knows how to fight and wants to keep the recovered dollars.
- 2.Chargeflow is broad. Your evidence desk starts with one job: pull Shopify, carrier, and message proof into one editable packet before the bank deadline.
- 3.Chargeflow works best when one vendor sees the full trail. Your desk matters when order history is split across processors or hidden in side tools.
Talk tracks3
1 / 3
- 1.Chargeflow takes the whole recovery job and 25% of the win. Your evidence desk fits the store that already knows how to fight and wants to keep the recovered dollars.
- 2.Chargeflow is broad. Your evidence desk starts with one job: pull Shopify, carrier, and message proof into one editable packet before the bank deadline.
- 3.Chargeflow works best when one vendor sees the full trail. Your desk matters when order history is split across processors or hidden in side tools.
Battle card — what to say vs them
- 1.Disputifier is built for done-for-you recovery. Your evidence desk is for the ops lead who wants the packet built fast but still wants hands on the final story.
- 2.Disputifier takes 20% on every recovered dollar. Your desk keeps the upside with the store once dispute volume is real.
- 3.Disputifier pulls deep data, but the product still centers outsourced recovery. Your desk centers packet assembly, reason-code guidance, and fight-or-write-off calls.
Talk tracks3
1 / 3
- 1.Disputifier is built for done-for-you recovery. Your evidence desk is for the ops lead who wants the packet built fast but still wants hands on the final story.
- 2.Disputifier takes 20% on every recovered dollar. Your desk keeps the upside with the store once dispute volume is real.
- 3.Disputifier pulls deep data, but the product still centers outsourced recovery. Your desk centers packet assembly, reason-code guidance, and fight-or-write-off calls.
Battle card — what to say vs them
- 1.Stripe Smart Disputes is clean when the whole case already lives in Stripe. Your evidence desk starts where the packet still needs carrier proof, message history, or non-Stripe context.
- 2.Stripe charges only on wins, but only inside eligible Stripe lanes. Your desk covers the messy queue outside that lane.
- 3.Stripe gives speed inside one dashboard. Your desk gives one reusable case file when the order story is split across tools.
Talk tracks3
1 / 3
- 1.Stripe Smart Disputes is clean when the whole case already lives in Stripe. Your evidence desk starts where the packet still needs carrier proof, message history, or non-Stripe context.
- 2.Stripe charges only on wins, but only inside eligible Stripe lanes. Your desk covers the messy queue outside that lane.
- 3.Stripe gives speed inside one dashboard. Your desk gives one reusable case file when the order story is split across tools.
Battle card — what to say vs them
- 1.Chargeback.io helps before the chargeback lands. Your evidence desk starts the moment a live dispute is already sitting in the queue.
- 2.Chargeback.io sells alert-network coverage. Your desk sells one editable packet when the bank deadline is staring back at the ops lead.
- 3.Chargeback.io is strong on auto-refund decisions. Your desk is strong on the cases worth fighting after prevention misses.
Talk tracks3
1 / 3
- 1.Chargeback.io helps before the chargeback lands. Your evidence desk starts the moment a live dispute is already sitting in the queue.
- 2.Chargeback.io sells alert-network coverage. Your desk sells one editable packet when the bank deadline is staring back at the ops lead.
- 3.Chargeback.io is strong on auto-refund decisions. Your desk is strong on the cases worth fighting after prevention misses.
Bundled tools already solve enough of the job for many Shopify-first stores. If 3 of the last 5 qualified prospects say their current processor or dispute vendor already covers the queue, the lane is closing.
CE3.0 is narrower than it sounds. If fewer than 30% of the first 50 fraud cases qualify, your packet still saves time but does not carry a strong win-rate story.
Price fit is unresolved. This plan tests $249/mo, but the same evidence keeps pointing back to a lower ceiling once 20% to 30% pay-per-win options become the mental comparison.
Workflow inertia is higher than it looks. If the team already trusts one processor or recovery vendor with deadlines and bank rules, your desk needs a clear fee edge or better second-case habit to get installed.
The window is short. If an incumbent ships the same review-first editor at roughly half the effective monthly cost, the thin middle segment closes before your integrations spread.
What You Bring
Your edge.
Thursday 6:54am. You're in the back booth of a diner with a $742 dispute open in Shopify, and your evidence desk turns order data, tracking scans, and support threads into one editable bank packet before breakfast. You win only in the gap the big vendors still leave open: split payment history, missing proof across tools, and stores that hate 20%-30% recovery fees.
5 cores. One surface.
Не бандл из всех фич. Узкий отряд — заточенный под один момент клиента.
Speed moatYou ship ugly evidence joins before lunch
Monday 2:14pm. You're wiring Shopify, a carrier feed, and support email into one case file while a sales-led vendor is still lining up onboarding. Your mix of engineering, finance, automation, and AI habit means you ship the ugly connector the live dispute needs instead of staffing a services team.
What you ship
You open 1 dispute and see Shopify order data, AVS/CVV, tracking scans, and support messages in one place.
You get a bank-ready draft with CE3.0 fields, prior-order matches, and line edits before send.
You see when a $42 fight is not worth another 28 minutes and when an $800 case deserves the work.
You keep prior orders, carrier events, and support threads in one record even when payment history is split across tools.
You see bank deadlines, missing proof, and next actions in one queue so live rescues do not slip.
Pricing
Live Rescue Pilot
$0
- 1 live dispute rescue
- Editable packet review
- Shopify + Stripe + 1 carrier only
Evidence Desk
$249/mo
- Unlimited active disputes
- Cross-tool case history
- Recoverability score
- Bank-ready packet export
Why this price
You test $249/mo because a store with about $1,250/mo in recoverable disputed GMV already feels similar pain from 20%-30% recovery fees, but this stays a live test because another conservative pass in the plan used $149/mo as the safer ceiling.
vs competitors
Flat $249/mo sits below Chargeflow's 25%, Disputifier's 20%, and Stripe's 30% take once dispute volume is real, while Chargeback.io charges $15-$29 per alert for a different job.
MVP scope6 weeks
Included
- You pull Shopify orders, fulfillment, and AVS/CVV into 1 case file.
- You ingest Stripe dispute status and tag available, requires_evidence, or unavailable cases.
- You import 1 carrier's tracking events plus support email proof.
- You draft an editable reason-code packet with CE3.0 fields and prior-order matching.
- You export a bank-ready PDF and score whether the case is worth fighting.
Not yet
- You do not support extra gateways beyond Shopify, Stripe, 1 carrier, and support email.
- You do not run Ethoca, RDR, or CDRN alert flows.
- You do not submit disputes for every processor as a done-for-you recovery service.
- You do not build fraud scoring or prevention.
- You do not add agency seats, account managers, or enterprise rollout work.
Your Survival Number
Break-even at
by Month 12
At 23 paying stores x $249/mo, you clear the $5,032 burn by about $65.
Monthly burn
$5,032/moRevenue
Revenue: $249
What they pay you each month. Before anything eats it.
Month 12 — three futures
Optimistic
31 customers
You convert 12 rescue pilots at 58% by Week 6, add about 3 paid stores per month from one partner channel, and 5% monthly churn holds because review-first pricing beats 20%-30% recovery fees for the right stores.
Base
23 customers
You convert 10 rescue pilots at 50% by Week 8, add about 2.5 paid stores per month from one partner channel, and 7% monthly churn holds while you stay on multi-gateway stores with at least $1,250/mo in recoverable disputed GMV.
Conservative
11 customers
You convert 10 rescue pilots at 40% by Week 8, add about 1 paid store per month after that, and 8% monthly churn keeps the line low because fewer than 30% of open cases qualify for CE3.0-style autofill.
Break-even
Month 12
At 23 paying stores x $249/mo, you clear the $5,032 burn by about $65.
Capital needed
If you sell this broadly, bundled incumbents push CAC up and the wedge disappears before you earn the burn back.
If more than half of pilots ask for pay-per-win pricing after one live rescue, $249/mo does not hold and the LTV math shrinks fast.
If fewer than 30% of the first 50 fraud disputes qualify for CE3.0-ready autofill, cleaner packets do not create enough lift to justify a $5,032/mo burn on their own.
This model carries two price anchors, $149/mo in the conservative SOM and $249/mo in the plan, so Month 12 break-even depends on a price the market has not accepted yet.
The timing window stays short: if Stripe, Riskified, or Chargeflow match a review-first editor near $124.50/mo equivalent, this subscription case folds fast.
Step 1 of 5 · Day 1
Reality
Сгенерировано 12 мая 2026 г.
$0
0 customers
Your Path
90 days.3 phases.First $ by W12.
Thursday, 6:54am. You're in the diner booth with a live Shopify dispute open, and by Week 12 you're the one two DTC partners call before breakfast when the proof is scattered across five tabs.
The Phase You Become the Rescue Desk
Days 1-28 · 10 live rescue pilots are open and at least 15 of 50 sampled fraud cases are CE3.0-ready, or CE3.0 leaves the pitch and the broad merchant wedge is on notice.
The Phase You Become the Paid Habit
Days 29-56 · 4 stores pay, fewer than half ask for contingency pricing, and at least 4 of the first 10 pilots send a second case, or subscription goes on trial and product work pauses.
The Phase You Become the Referral Name
Days 57-84 · 2 repeat referral partners, 6 paid stores, and 60% of converted stores submitting a second case means the wedge stays alive; below that, you move to agency tooling or the next niche.
The three gates
“By Week 4 you are the one who opened 10 live rescue pilots and knows where the proof still breaks.”
Goal: You prove agencies can send live disputes and that the first 50 sampled cases still show a manual evidence gap worth building for.
10 live rescue pilots are open and at least 15 of 50 sampled fraud cases are CE3.0-ready, or CE3.0 leaves the pitch and the broad merchant wedge is on notice.
Wednesday, 8:11am. Your inbox shows three replies from agency operators, and one of them forwards a live Shopify dispute with the carrier link still missing. Nobody pays yet, but somebody trusts you with a deadline.
“By Week 8 you are the operator who gets paid after the first rescue and sees stores send the next case back.”
Goal: You turn live rescues into 4 paid stores and learn if $249/mo beats contingency pricing for this narrow store shape.
4 stores pay, fewer than half ask for contingency pricing, and at least 4 of the first 10 pilots send a second case, or subscription goes on trial and product work pauses.
First Stripe ping. 7:43am, Tuesday. Still in socks, you see $249 from Maya at Northline after yesterday's rescue packet, and she sends the next case back that afternoon.
“By Week 12 you are the referral name who either owns this narrow gap or leaves it cleanly.”
Goal: You prove repeat referrals and repeat case flow before an incumbent closes the same gap.
2 repeat referral partners, 6 paid stores, and 60% of converted stores submitting a second case means the wedge stays alive; below that, you move to agency tooling or the next niche.
Monday, 8:41am. You look at the scorecard: 6 paid stores, 2 repeat referral partners, and 60% of converted stores sending a second case means you keep this wedge and stay narrow. If the board is lighter than that, Indie Tax Desk is already open in the next tab at the kitchen counter.
Weekly spine
- W01
1 live Shopify dispute runs through your desk with Shopify, Stripe, one carrier, and email in the same case file.
- W04Kill point
At least 15 of 50 sampled fraud cases are CE3.0-ready, or CE3.0 leaves the headline pitch.
- W06Kill point
10 live rescue pilots are open after 20 partner asks, or you stop broad merchant software and move to agency-side tooling.
- W08Kill point
4 stores pay, fewer than half ask for contingency pricing, and at least 4 of the first 10 pilots send a second case through the desk.
- W10Kill point
If 3 of the last 5 qualified prospects say Stripe, Riskified, or Chargeflow already covers the workflow, you narrow to one processor pair or exit.
- W12Kill point
2 repeat referral partners, 6 paid stores, and 60% repeat use keep the wedge alive; if a bundled rival matches the review-first editor at about $124.50/mo equivalent or less, you leave this lane.
Experiments
What Could Break
Hit 60. Or pivot.
Tuesday, 6:41am, you open the dispute queue before coffee and the answer is plain: this lane is real, but thin. If live cases do not keep coming back through the desk by Week 8, you are holding a useful rescue tool, not a durable business.
What could break · what you do next
Bundled tools erase the gap
criticalhighStripe, Riskified, and Chargeflow already cover enough of the workflow for a lot of Shopify stores. If qualified prospects do not point to a real missing-data gap, this desk shrinks into a feature inside someone else's stack.
Incumbent coverage on qualified prospects
Target: 3 of last 5 qualified prospects say Stripe, Riskified, or Chargeflow already covers the job
Indie Tax Desk — Tuesday 8:12am. You open Stripe Dashboard at the kitchen counter and the Berlin payment already tells you the tax rule.
Foundry drafts the next brief Saturday morning, and you keep the partner notes, case patterns, and sales language.
Mitigation:Sell only to Shopify-first stores with active disputes, fragmented processor history, or Smart Disputes states that stay requires_evidence or unavailable, and log the missing-data reason plus any current vendor contract on every case.
CE3.0 stays a side feature
highhighCE3.0 helps only a narrow slice of Visa 10.4 fraud disputes and needs two clean prior transactions plus matching data. If the first 50 sampled fraud disputes do not carry that history, CE3.0 stays a template, not the headline.
CE3.0-ready fraud dispute share
Target: < 30% of first 50 sampled fraud disputes
Indie Tax Desk — Tuesday 8:12am. You open Stripe Dashboard at the kitchen counter and the Berlin payment already tells you the tax rule.
Foundry keeps the case tags and rewrites the pitch around the proof that actually shows up.
Mitigation:Audit the first 50 fraud disputes for reason code, prior-order depth, and data matches, then keep packet assembly and ROI triage at the center of the pitch.
The price point might be wrong
highhighPay-per-win tools already sit inside the same spend band, and the plan itself carries a $149 versus $249 tension. If stores below about $1,250/mo in recoverable disputed GMV fill the pipeline, the monthly fee feels expensive fast.
Contingency-pricing objection rate
Target: > 50% of pilot pricing conversations
Creator Deal Ledger — Monday 9:16pm. You close Final Cut at the kitchen table and the sponsor money finally sits in one place instead of 3 DM threads.
Foundry keeps the objection log so the next offer starts closer to the money.
Mitigation:Quote only after one live rescue, collect the last 90 days of disputed GMV, and test pay-per-case pricing the moment half the room asks for it.
A rescue tool never becomes a habit
criticalhighA first rescue feels good and still proves nothing. If fewer than 4 of the first 10 pilots bring a second live case through the desk, you are seeing curiosity, not habit.
Second-case reuse
Target: < 4 of first 10 pilots submit a second case
Creator Deal Ledger — Monday 9:16pm. You close Final Cut at the kitchen table and the sponsor money finally sits in one place instead of 3 DM threads.
Foundry turns the rescue notes into a service script so the work still pays while you decide.
Mitigation:Require every pilot to route the next live dispute through the desk and track prep minutes, submission reuse, and portal friction on the second case.
Scope creep burns the first 90 days
highhighA full-time solo build still breaks if you chase direct merchant outreach, wide integrations, and portal quirks at once. Week 5 to Week 8 already carries sales, live deadlines, and product fixes.
Non-essential spend before proof
Target: > 1500 before 4 paid stores or before 1 partner sends 2 repeat introductions
Indie Tax Desk — Tuesday 8:12am. You open Stripe Dashboard at the kitchen counter and the Berlin payment already tells you the tax rule.
Foundry carries the narrowed scope into the next brief so you start lighter, not from zero.
Mitigation:Keep paid ads at $0, support only Shopify, Stripe, one carrier, and email, and shadow-submit 10 live disputes across 3 acquiring setups before any new connector work.
Stress tests
Budget halved
Partner referrals still work because paid ads already stay at $0, but a cut to about $2,516/mo slows case reviews and onboarding. Break-even slides past Month 12 unless the first partners keep sending live disputes.
Timeline doubled
If the 12-week plan stretches to 24 weeks, the 90-day test fails and the thin gap keeps closing while incumbents keep shipping into it.
Incumbent matches the editor at half the price
If an incumbent ships the same review-first editor at about half the planned price, the middle segment disappears fast. The differentiation is already narrow, so a cheaper bundled option pulls the floor out.
Your North Star
Repeat-use rate
This is the clearest sign the desk becomes habit instead of a one-off save.
Checked weeklySupporting metrics
Live rescue pilots opened
10 by Week 6
Without 10 live cases, you do not see enough pain, blockers, or partner pull to trust the wedge.
CE3.0-ready fraud dispute share
30% or more of first 50 sampled fraud disputes by Week 4
Below this, CE3.0 stays supporting evidence, not the core pitch.
Manual-gap rate
60% or more of sampled disputes still need cross-tool evidence assembly by Week 6
This shows the current stack still leaves real work on the table.
Paid pilot conversion
4 paid stores by Week 8
First revenue matters only if rescue work turns into a paid motion.
Reflection calendar
12-week cadence · Selected W1 of 12
Click a week to see the questions due then. Weekly questions repeat; monthly checkpoints appear on W4, W8, and W12.
This week (W1) — questions
Which live case this week shows a data gap that Stripe or the current vendor still cannot fill?
weeklyThis keeps you honest about whether the gap still exists.
How many pilot intros arrive from partners without a second chase from you?
weeklyA one-channel plan holds only if introductions repeat on their own.
Which pricing objection shows up more this week: already covered, or only pay on wins?
weeklyThis tells you whether bundling or price kills the sale.
Did any converted store bring the next dispute through the desk without a reminder?
weeklySecond-case reuse is the habit test.
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